Friday, February 7, 2020

Oscar 2020: The Wills, the Shoulds, and the Should Have Beens

In which I tell you what I think will happen on Oscar night (and what they got and will get wrong.)


Here. We. Go.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Kathy Bates, "Richard Jewell"
Laura Dern, "Marriage Story"
Scarlett Johansson, "Jojo Rabbit"
Florence Pugh, "Little Women"
Margot Robbie, "Bombshell"

Will Win: Laura Dern
Should Win: Florence Pugh
Should Have Been: Keep Margot but for "Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood" (that's right!) and replace any of them that aren't Florence Pugh with Shuzhen Zhao, the grandmother in "The Farewell."

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Tom Hanks, "A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood"
Anthony Hopkins, "The Two Popes"
Al Pacino, "The Irishman"
Joe Pesci, "The Irishman"
Brad Pitt, "Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood"

Will and Should Win: Brad Pitt
Should Have Been: Replace Hopkins with Paul Rudd in "Avengers: Endgame"...I'm deadly serious.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
South Korea, "Parasite"
Spain, "Pain and Glory"
France, "Les Misérables"
North Macedonia, "Honeyland"
Poland, "Corpus Christi"

Will and Should Win: "Parasite"
Should Have Been: I should have been seeing more of these movies.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Little Women"
"The Two Popes"
"Joker"

Will Win: "Joker"
Should Win: "Little Women"
Should Have Been: Any screenplay that's not "Joker." That movie is great to look at, well-made and acted and is utterly stupid and painfully on the nose.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
"Marriage Story"
"Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
"Parasite"
"Knives Out"
"1917"

Will Win: "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
Should Win: "Parasite"
Should Have Been: Any screenplay that's not "1917" (a movie that required no writing and has no story nor characters), including "The Farewell," "Midsommar," "Uncut Gems," and "Us."

PRODUCTION DESIGN

"Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood"
"The Irishman"
"1917"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Parasite"

Will Win: "1917"
Should Win: "Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood"
Should Have Been: "Midsommar" instead of "The Irishman"...that is all.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

"1917"
"Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
"The Irishman"
"Joker"
"The Lighthouse"

Will Win: "1917"
Should Win: "The Lighthouse"
Should Have Been: The visual sharpness of "Parasite" is as strong or stronger than that of "Joker" at any point, and the cinematography is the one true highlight of "Joker" for me.

ORIGINAL SCORE

"1917," Thomas Newman
"Joker," Hildur Guðnadóttir
"Little Women," Alexandre Desplat
"Marriage Story," Randy Newman
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker," John Williams

Will Win: Thomas Newman
Should Win: Randy Newman
Should Have Been: Nathan Johnson's score for "Knives Out" is masterful. This is honestly a great lineup that probably has it right.

FILM EDITING

"The Irishman"
"Ford v Ferrari"
"Parasite"
"Joker"
"Jojo Rabbit"

Will Win: "Joker"
Should Win: "Ford v Ferrari"
Should Have Been: Did the editor's branch not watch "Marriage Story"?

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Antonio Banderas, "Pain and Glory"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood"
Adam Driver, "Marriage Story"
Joaquin Phoenix, "Joker"
Jonathan Pryce, "The Two Popes"

Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix
Should Win: Adam Driver
Should Have Been: I'm sure Pryce is great. Haven't seen the movie. Adam Sandler missing from this list is one of the great travesties of the awards season.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Cynthia Erivo, "Harriet"
Scarlett Johansson, "Marriage Story"
Saoirse Ronan, "Little Women"
Renée Zellweger, "Judy"
Charlize Theron, "Bombshell"

Will Win: Renée Zellweger
Should Win: Scarlett Johansson
Should Have Been: I'm sure Zellweger is great. Haven't seen the movie (and likely won't). Lupita Nyong'o missing is one of the great travesties of the awards season. (See also: Ana de Armas in "Knives Out")

DIRECTOR

Martin Scorsese, "The Irishman"
Quentin Tarantino, "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
Bong Joon-ho, "Parasite"
Sam Mendes, "1917"
Todd Phillips, "Joker"

Will Win: Sam Mendes
Should Win: Bong Joon-ho
Should Have Been: Honestly, they probably got this one right, though a strong case could be made for Greta Gerwig ("Little Women") and Lorene Scafaria ("Hustlers"), two women who can easily play ball with any of these dudes.

BEST PICTURE

"1917"
"Ford v Ferrari"
"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Joker"
"Little Women"
"Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood"
"Marriage Story"
"Parasite"

Will Win: "1917"
Should Win: "Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood"
Should Have Been: Just make it 10 with "Avengers: Endgame."


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